Interpreting Middle East Economic News and Analyzing Market Trends

Archive for July, 2013

Cyprus Update: Bailout/Bail-in is a total failure

Cyprus Mail - How Much Worse Can it Get

It’s been a couple of months since we covered Cyprus so we decided to see how the March bailout/bail-in is going.  We knew it was going to be a failure, but we didn’t realize it would be a textbook case.  Business and economic students will be studying this for decades to come.

 

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The UAE’s consumer debt on the rise, fueling spending across the country

 

For years now UAE banks have struggled to kick-start consumer loan growth as the corporate side was taking too long to recover from the financial crisis.  We reported last March that UAE banks were becoming more aggressive towards consumer lending and were back to pre-crisis sales tactics in order to growth their loan portfolios.  Now it seems that they got what they wanted only to set off alarm bells as some fear this growth has come too soon and is growing too fast.

 

 

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Gulf countries celebrate demise of democracy in Egypt by giving $12 billion in aid, but there are other motives

Egypt Military Coup

Days after Egypt’s military threw out Mohammed Morsi and his cabinet, Gulf countries of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE pledged $12 billion in aid to support the country and the economy.  One reason for this quick aid package is to show their displeasure with Morsi, but there are also other reasons…

 

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Turmoil in the Middle East? Not all markets agree, Kuwait and UAE have had stellar performance so far

Syria is in the middle of a 2-year civil war with no end in sight, Egypt’s military threw out its first elected leader in decades last week, tensions in Iraq and Lebanon are escalating, Libya has been a mess since its revolution and mass-protests show no signs of stopping in Turkey, yet some GCC markets are hitting fresh multi-year highs…

 

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Egypt: 6 Charts and 2 Scenarios

This article is re-posted from Zerohedge.

The overthrow of President Mohamad Morsi by popular demand and supported by the army inaugurates yet another volatile episode in Egypt’s long and turbulent transition. Macro stabilisation in Egypt hinges on a swift and cohesive transition, and given the current bloodshed, that appears unlikely – which leaves Barclays ‘muddle-through scenario’ – where political/religious divides delay formation of civilian government – as the most likely; postponing fiscal reforms indefinitely, and undermining further the fiscal and debt sustainability of the already-troubled nation.

 

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