Interpreting Middle East Economic News and Analyzing Market Trends

Category: Commentary & Analysis

Saudi Arabia backtracks on Aramco sale but it still needs the money

Saudi Aramco

On Friday (Jan. 8), news hit the markets that Saudi Arabia might take its crown jewel (Aramco) public to help offset the country’s mounting budget deficit.  On Monday (Jan. 11), the story died before all the speculative angles of why the Saudi’s might be interested in selling could be analyzed.  The truth is a sale of Aramco will eventually happen but not until all other sources of raising cash are exhausted.  The bottom line is that the country needs cash and fast.

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Macroeconomic Outlook for Kuwait and the GCC

I was invited to speak at the IFN Forum Kuwait, which was held in Kuwait on October 19, 2015.  I gave a presentation on my outlook for Kuwait and the rest of the GCC countries in light of the 60%+ fall in the price of oil over the past year.

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Bad timing? Qatar Investment Authority looks to invest $35 billion in US

Where Qatar Invests

Source: This is Money, UK.

Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund, Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), announced its plans of opening an investment office in the US and invest $35 billion over the next five years.  The move comes as it tries to diversify away from Europe and Asia.  Could it have chosen a worse time for this move?


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Market outlook for the rest of 2015: How to make it through the chaos that lies ahead

Image Source: CNN Money

With the end of the third quarter quickly approaching, I thought that it is the right time to give an update on some of the recent news in financial markets and what it is signaling to us.  At the very least, we need to pay close attention to what is happening in the oil market.  I previously wrote about oil here and why I believe the price is headed much lower.  Today, however, there is not only evidence that oil is headed lower, but that nearly every other asset will be headed lower too.

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Market outlook for the remainder of 2015: Negative

Financial Crisis Ahead

I recently prepared a detailed report to one of my clients on the market outlook for the rest of 2015.  The findings in the report were a bit of a shock to them, but nevertheless, they accepted them as real possibilities given recent developments.  I would like to share with you the highlights of the report so that you can prepare yourself for what lies ahead, or at least offer you a different point of view from the ‘recovery is taking hold’ crowd.  More importantly, I urge you to take a close look at the ‘elephant in the coal mine’, Deutsche Bank.

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