Interpreting Middle East Economic News and Analyzing Market Trends

Category: Kuwait

Macroeconomic Outlook for Kuwait and the GCC

I was invited to speak at the IFN Forum Kuwait, which was held in Kuwait on October 19, 2015.  I gave a presentation on my outlook for Kuwait and the rest of the GCC countries in light of the 60%+ fall in the price of oil over the past year.

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The vanishing petrodollar and its implications on financial markets

 
Petrodollar

Image Source: The Daily Reckoning

It didn’t take long for the effects of falling oils prices to catch up with the global economy.  We’ve reported in the past how falling oil prices will expose the ‘shale revolution’ myth, and we are now starting to see shale companies file for bankruptcy (expect this trend to accelerate through the summer).  Now, however, we are starting to see the effects of vanishing petrodollars from the global financial system. The acceleration of this trend alone can spark another financial crisis.

   

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Kuwait government investments are approaching $800 billion, much larger than previous estimates

IFSWF 2014

Bader Al-Saad (center), Chairman of the Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA)

 

On October 22, 2014, Kuwaiti newspaper Alrai published figures from a report it had received detailing the Kuwaiti government’s finances and investments.  In it, the report states that the government’s total investments are valued at $782 billion as of June 30th this year.  Total investments are expected to top $800 billion by the end of the year.  This figure is much higher than previous estimates reported by the media.

 

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Worldwide youth unemployment stuck at record levels, outlook for the Middle East is especially poor

Youth Unemployment Global

Click on map for a large image

We reported last year on the terrible outlook for youth unemployment around the world (read the story here).  The map above is an update on this global problem.  The situation is particularly bank for the Middle East and Southern Europe.  The are no indications that this problem will go away any time soon.

 

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What’s at stake for the Middle East in Ukraine

Ukraine Farmalnd

Photo Source: Modern Diplomacy

With the crisis in Ukraine going from bad to worse, all attention has been on the increasing tensions in the region and its effects on the Ukrainian and Russian economies.  There is a lot more at stake than these economies alone.  Take for example the Middle East; it has a lot at stake in the Ukraine than most realize.  Not much has been said about this, which needs some attention.

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