Interpreting Middle East Economic News and Analyzing Market Trends

Category: UAE

Macroeconomic Outlook for Kuwait and the GCC

I was invited to speak at the IFN Forum Kuwait, which was held in Kuwait on October 19, 2015.  I gave a presentation on my outlook for Kuwait and the rest of the GCC countries in light of the 60%+ fall in the price of oil over the past year.

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The vanishing petrodollar and its implications on financial markets


Image Source: The Daily Reckoning

It didn’t take long for the effects of falling oils prices to catch up with the global economy.  We’ve reported in the past how falling oil prices will expose the ‘shale revolution’ myth, and we are now starting to see shale companies file for bankruptcy (expect this trend to accelerate through the summer).  Now, however, we are starting to see the effects of vanishing petrodollars from the global financial system. The acceleration of this trend alone can spark another financial crisis.


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Deflation, defaults, social unrest and other ‘surprises’ waiting for us in 2015

Financial Crisis - Slideshare



As 2014 comes to an end, we wanted to take a look back at events and trends over the past few years and give you some of our thoughts on what we expect to see in 2015.  We decided to make a list… a top 10 list of ‘surprises’ we expect to see in the coming year.  Here they are… enjoy…  


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Is it too late to join the IPO party?


The IPO has been set for Saudi Arabia’s National Commercial Bank’s (NCB), the largest bank in the country and one of the largest banks in the Middle East. If all goes well, the IPO will be the second largest IPO globally for 2014 after Alibaba, which debuted last month.  Has the IPO market topped or is this market just getting warmed up?


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Trump’s 2nd golf course development in Dubai signals market top… time to sell!


Trump announces second golf course development in Dubai. Source: Emirates247

Donald Trump has had a poor track record at market timing, not only in Dubai, but also in the US.  His first attempt at property development in Dubai was at the top of the market.  The project barely got off the ground before being cancelled in 2011 as we reported in an earlier post here.  Will this time be different?

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