Interpreting Middle East Economic News and Analyzing Market Trends

Trump’s 2nd golf course development in Dubai signals market top… time to sell!

 

Trump announces second golf course development in Dubai. Source: Emirates247

Donald Trump has had a poor track record at market timing, not only in Dubai, but also in the US.  His first attempt at property development in Dubai was at the top of the market.  The project barely got off the ground before being cancelled in 2011 as we reported in an earlier post here.  Will this time be different?

     

Trump, a well-known billionaire real estate investor and TV-personality, owns hotels, casinos and golf courses among other things, has had a poor track record at timing the market.  His holdings, all of which bear his name, are owned through multiple companies and subsidiaries.  According to Forbes, since 1991, his companies have filed bankruptcy four times; 1991, 1992, 2004 and 2009.  Though he still remains a billionaire, a fifth bankruptcy is on the way for his casino business:

    

Trump Entertainment Resorts Inc., the company founded by Donald Trump, will file for bankruptcy again this week, people with knowledge of the situation said, putting a fifth Atlantic City casino in danger of closing.
The company owns two properties in the struggling New Jersey resort town. Trump Plaza is set to cease operations on Sept. 16, and the Trump Taj Mahal may also shut in November, the people said. Three other casinos have closed in the city this year, including Caesars Entertainment Corp.’s Showboat and the Revel Casino Hotel last week.
Read the full story from Bloomberg.
 
With this new bankruptcy aside, Trump is looking to Dubai for better luck:

 

Damac Properties plans to develop a second golf course in Dubai with the Trump Organisation.

The Trump World Golf Club Dubai will be part of the developer’s new 55 million square feet master development, Akoya Oxygen in Dubailand.

It is the second development for the Trump Organisation in Dubai, following the Trump International Golf Club announced in May 2013 on the same development. It is the 18th Trump golf course to be developed.

“It will complement the Trump International Golf Club and its residential component perfectly and elevate Dubai’s already strong golf industry to the highest levels of luxury,” said Donald Trump, chairman of The Trump Organisation.

Golf course development is returning to the emirate after some planned high-profile developments were put on hold following the financial crisis.

The Akoya development was launched 17 months ago and marked Damac’s first foray into large master planned villa-based developments.

Harshjit Oza, an analyst at Naeem Brokerage, wrote in a research note: “Damac is a growth story, given its Dubai exposure and a promising pipeline of projects within the high-end residential and hospitality sectors.

“We expect real estate demand in Dubai to continue being resilient and view Damac as a key beneficiary.”

Read the full story from The National.

 

Will Trump succeed this time when he failed the first time?  With Dubai property prices up 20% over the past 12 months according to Gulf Business, it’s hard to see how high prices can go… Trump, however, has finally given us the assurance that they can’t and won’t.  We believe that Trump’s latest venture into Dubai marks a market top and expect prices to flatten out or fall from here.